obscuring our patriarch's blog

Today's news contains yet another dilution of our patriarch's efforts to gain recognition of the politics of his commonwealth locality.  

Since the Wars of the Roses there has been a Lord Egremont.  Today we see the current Egremont in the news.  He owns the earliest telescopic drawings of the moon.

Happy 400th birthday, telescope.

I'm with Eric Berne

I recall my dad telling stories about life at the house in Park Ridge.   I surmise that after moving in Vern undertook a long project to remodel an upper room.  My dad spoke glowingly of the craftsmanship, and I found the accounting ledger for the project when I cleared my dad's storage locker.  My dad spoke of an alcove in the room which was a perfect fit for a radio.

I suppose that it was in this room that another story occurred.  My dad spoke of listening to the radio and Vern telling him that someday they would be able to see the performers.  My dad described his imagined notion of looking into the top of the radio and seeing little performers inside.  The first licensed TV station in Illinois was in 1943, and production of TVs was halted until Japan surrendered in 1945, so I surmise this discussion happened before then.

Nevertheless, the NTSC standard for TV broadcasts in the US had been created before Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.  That's how old the system is -- our patriarch is barely older.  We're still using it today even though the ATSC family of standards has been around for a while. According to an act of congress 3 years ago NTSC is to cease in 3 weeks, and only ATSC will remain.   Within that act were requirements that all TVs sold during the past 2 years (the past 4 years for big TVs) handle ATSC.

The broadcasters are all ready, and they've been telling the public about this for several years. But the new president has expressed reservations, and the senate is following the lead of their former colleague.   Last week the senate tried to extend the deadline by 4 months, but the house said no.  This week the senate passed another bill to extend the deadline -- sort of.  This bill doesn't require an extension, it allows the broadcasters to decide to extend, if they want.

I find this to be reminiscent of Han Solo's "it's not my fault" line, and of George Lucas retconning history in the Mos Eisley bar on Tattooine.  Let's all remember clearly -- Han Solo fired his blaster first.  Some three years ago congress and the previous president extended the previous deadline and mandated the change to ATSC on 2009-02-17.  Now the current incumbents want to pull a Han Solo.  They want to make any loss of signal by unprepared consumers into the fault of the local TV station.

Wait, I've seen this game even before Han Solo.  Eric Berne wrote about it in Games People Play, the foundation of transactional analysis.  I'm pretty sure it's one or more of the most common games.

It's pretty clear that the president wants to play this game.  I hope congress maintains its resolve and again says "no" instead of spreading the blame.  After all, it's not like the lack of broadcast TV would destabilize civilization, is it?

National Bankruptcy

As I feared, the tax and spenders (sometimes known as the democrats, although in recent years including the republicans) are in the process of turning emergency economic stimulus into a Christmas tree of spending on their favorite programs. For roughly the last 60 years, we could afford that kind of nonsense in this country, but we can't any more. I'm old enough that the fallout won't hurt me heavily before I die. But you younger folks will suffer for a long time. You will essentially become vassals of the Chinese and other peoples who still believe that profligacy is bad.

how's your weather?

Here in Santa Cruz we are enjoying our 4th straight day of record high temperatures. Last weekend the girls and I were wading in the tidepools at the beach.

I understand it's not so warm where some of you are.
I don't expect you can out do these folks.

failure of imagination

René Descartes laid mathematical foundations for much of human endeavor, as well as writing about other aspects of human behavior. His math was relevant to the calculus of Newton and Leibniz. The calculus underlies the work of Lotka and Volterra whose equations model the predator-prey equations in 2 or more dimensions. In their general form these equations have been applied to the populations of blood-sucking fiends in Buffy the Vampire Slayer. My point in all of these is that there can be a stable equilibrium, or there can be wild oscillations of the various populations. It depends on the initial conditions, the changes in those conditions, and the availability of guiding forces outside the natural instincts of the populations.

The same sorts of differential equations apply to economics. There can be relatively stable equilibrium, or there can be wild oscillations, it depends on the amount and type of regulation. Lack of regulation will often result in wild oscillations. Too much regulation may cause the extinction of one, or more, of the species. Regulations come from government, but government itself is subject to wild oscillations.

It's hard to reach equlibrium, especially when the conditions are evolving. It's harder when there are other populations which are not subject to regulation. It's harder still when there is more than one species of blood sucking fiend participating in the government policies, for they may not be interested in equilibrium at all.

The world is full of vampires, and some of them are us.

The Economy and Politicians

The following wasn't written by me, but it might have been:

To All My Valued Employees,

There have been some rumblings around the office

about the future of this company, and more

specifically, your job. As you know, the economy

has changed for the worse and presents many

challenges. However, the good news is this: The

economy doesn't pose a threat to your job. What

does threaten your job however, is the changing

political landscape in this country. However, let me

tell you some little tidbits of fact which might help

you decide what is in your best interests.

First, while it is easy to spew rhetoric that casts

employers against employees, you have to

understand that for every business owner there is a

Back Story. This back story is often neglected and

overshadowed by what you see and hear. Sure, you

see me park my Mercedes outside. You've seen my

big home at last years Christmas party. I'm sure; all

these flashy icons of luxury conjure up some

idealized thoughts about my life.

However, what you don't see is the BACK STORY:

I started this company 28 years ago. At that time, I

lived in a 300 square foot studio apartment for 3

years. My entire living apartment was converted into

an office so I could put forth 100% effort into

building a company, which by the way, would

eventually employ you.

My diet consisted of Ramen Pride noodles because

every dollar I spent went back into this company. I

drove a rusty Toyota Corolla with a defective

transmission. I didn't have time to date. Often times,

I stayed home on weekends, while my friends went

out drinking and partying. In fact, I was married to

my business -- hard work, discipline, and sacrifice.

Meanwhile, my friends got jobs. They worked 40

hours a week and made a modest $50K a year and

spent every dime they earned. They drove flashy

cars and lived in expensive homes and wore fancy

designer clothes. Instead of hitting the Nordstrom's

for the latest hot fashion item, I was trolling through

the discount store extracting any clothing item that

didn't look like it was birthed in the 70's. My friends

refinanced their mortgages and lived a life of luxury.

I, however, did not. I put my time, my money, and

my life into a business with a vision that eventually,

some day, I too, will be able to afford these luxuries

my friends supposedly had.

So, while you physically arrive at the office at 9

A.M., mentally check in at about noon, and then

leave at 5 P.M., I don't. There is no "off" button for

me. When you leave the office, you are done and

you have a weekend all to yourself. I unfortunately

do not have the freedom. I eat, and breathe this

company every minute of the day. There is no rest.

There is no weekend. There is no happy hour.

Every day this business is attached to my hip like a

1 year old special-needs child. You, of course, only

see the fruits of that garden -- the nice house, the

Mercedes, the vacations... you never realize the

Back Story and the sacrifices I've made.

Now, the economy is falling apart and I, the guy

that made all the right decisions and saved his

money, have to bail-out all the people who didn't.

The people that overspent their paychecks suddenly

feel entitled to the same luxuries that I earned and

sacrificed a decade of my life for.

Yes, business ownership has is benefits but the

price I've paid is steep and not without wounds.

Unfortunately, the cost of running this business,

and employing you, is starting to eclipse the

threshold of marginal benefit and let me tell you

why:

I am being taxed to death and the government

thinks I don't pay enough. I have state taxes.

Federal taxes. Property taxes. Sales and use taxes.

Payroll taxes. Workers compensation taxes.

Unemployment taxes. Taxes on taxes. I have to hire

a tax man to manage all these taxes and then guess

what? I have to pay taxes for employing him.

Government mandates and regulations and all the

accounting that goes with it, now occupy most of my

time. On Oct 15th, I wrote a check to the US

Treasury for $288,000 for quarterly taxes. You know

what my "stimulus" check was? Zero.. Nada. Zilch.

The question I have is this: Who is stimulating the

economy? Me, the guy who has provided 14 people

good paying jobs and serves over 2,200,000

people per year with a flourishing business? Or, the

single mother sitting at home pregnant with her

fourth child waiting for her next welfare check?

Obviously, government feels the latter is the

economic stimulus of this country.

The fact is, if I deducted (Read: Stole) 50% of your

paycheck you'd quit and you wouldn't work here. I

mean, why should you? That's nuts. Who wants to

get rewarded only 50% of their hard work? Well, I

agree which is why your job is in jeopardy.

Here is what many of you don't understand ... to

stimulate the economy you need to stimulate what

runs the economy. Had suddenly government

mandated to me that I didn't need to pay taxes,

guess what? Instead of depositing that $288,000

into the Washington black-hole, I would have spent

it, hired more employees, and generated substantial

economic growth. My employees would have

enjoyed the wealth of that tax cut in the form of

promotions and better salaries. But you can forget it

now.

When you have a comatose man on the verge of

death, you don't defibrillate and shock his thumb

thinking that will bring him back to life, do you? Or,

do you defibrillate his heart? Business is at the heart

of America and always has been. To restart it, you

must stimulate it, not kill it. Suddenly, the power

brokers in Washington believe the poor of America

are the essential drivers of the American economic

engine. Nothing could be further from the truth and

this is the type of change you can keep.

So where am I going with all this?

It's quite simple.

If any new taxes are levied on me, or my company,

my reaction will be swift and simple. I'll fire you. I'll

fire your co-workers. You can then plead with the

government to pay for your mortgage, your SUV,

and your child's future. Frankly, it isn't my problem

any more.

Then, I will close this company down, move to

another country, and retire. You see, I'm done. I'm

done with a country that penalizes the productive

and gives to the unproductive. My motivation to

work and to provide jobs will be destroyed, and with

it, will be my citizenship.

So, if you lose your job, it won't be at the hands of

the economy; it will be at the hands of a political

hurricane that swept through this country,

steamrolled the constitution, and will have changed

its landscape forever. If that happens, you can find

me sitting on a beach, retired, and with no

employees to worry about....

Signed, THE BOSS

Atlas is finally very much ready to shrug.

Plinian medicine, or Mushroom clouds

When Rich suggested this blog should be erudite I wondered if he might wish for us to produce works such as Pliny the Elder or maybe Pliny the Younger. After a long career in service of the Roman empire the elder was in charge of the largest port of the Roman navy when Vesuvius erupted. He launched rescue boats toward the other side of the gulf of Naples and died during the effort. His nephew's description of that event led to the moniker Plinian eruption to describe the mushroom cloud of ash.

Locally we have a doctor Todd Mitchell who is in the news again today because of mushrooms. Two years ago he cut through FDA red tape to get a drug that inhibits the liver damage caused by poisonous mushrooms. He saved a family then, and he has just repeated that with another family. In Europe they have been using milk thistle extract to treat poisonings, but the drug is not approved in the US.

How is this all connected? Pliny the elder wrote Naturalis Historia, one of the earliest surviving examples of encyclopedic knowledge. In it he described the use of milk thistle.

Can we all reach the levels of the Plinys? Perhaps not, but we can aspire. We must.

Holman Jenkins and Madoff and Ponzi Schemes

I was drafting an erudite posting on the Jenkins opinion piece in today's Wall Street Journal, but it disappeared after I'd done about 4 paragraphs, so I'm not going to recreate it. Suffice it to say that a lot of Madoff investors who got their money out before the bankruptcy (because they were lucky or smart) are going to get sued and have to pay the money back. Many of them will be as innocent as the snow falling outside my window. They'll be victims of a bad decision by a guy named Hardin, the bankruptcy judge in the Bayou Ponzi scheme bankruptcy, who ruled that pretty much all pre-bankruptcy transfers (during the period of two years before the bankruptcy - Holman Jenkins please note this error in yout WSJ piece) made when there's a Ponzi scheme are recoverable.

If it's a bad decision, why wasn't it appealed? Because the lawyers for the bankrupt engaged in a scorched earth approach designed to make people give up and settle before their own legal fees bankrupted them. That reflects a major flaw in our American legal system. But it's a flaw that won't get corrected until we all wake up to the damage done by the trial lawyers in this country. What do you think the chances are for that to happen?